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Oljeprisen

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EIA: WTI will average $53.61 next year, down from last month’s estimate of $55.10, the report showed. The agency raised its 2017 estimate to $50.78 a barrel from $50.68. Brent crude, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, is projected to average $55.61 next year and $52.69 this year, compared with prior estimates of $57.10 and $52.60. #oil

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"Oilprice.com

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a draw of 8.67 million barrels in United States crude oil inventories, compared to analyst expectations that markets would see a draw of only 2.8 million barrels for the week ending May 26.

The news of a larger than expected draw will no doubt be welcomed by the industry, as oil prices in the last couple of weeks have seem particularly resistant to the efforts of OPEC to rebalance the oil market, and it appears equally as resistant to dwindling US oil inventories-the latter of which has been of significant concern throughout much of 2017.

While this week is a significant draw in itself, the last five reporting weeks has seen a reduction of 19.277 million barrels, according to API data. Using the last five weeks of EIA data-for weeks ending April 21 through May 19, crude oil inventories have diminished by 15.9 million barrels. While the draw doesn't offset the builds seen in Q1, the disparity in trends from Q1 to Q2 cannot be ignored, and under normal circumstances, should be a positive sign for the industry. Instead, inventory reports and rig count data are having only a temporary knee-jerk effect on prices." #OIL

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US oil rig count økte denne uken med kun +2. Det er den svakeste økningen siden rundt nyttår. Jeg ville dog være forsiktig med kun å ta en uke som indikasjon på noe. De foregående uken har tallet vært +8,+9 og +6. Antallet er opp 3,6% siste 4 uker, rullerende 4 uker før dette var på +4,6%, +4,2%, +4,6%. #oil

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#OIL #Renewables - Allerede old news, fra 10. mai, som viser hvilken retning det går i stadig økende hastighet: Indian solar power prices hit record low, undercutting fossil fuels - "At a reverse auction in Rajasthan on Tuesday, power companies Phelan Energy and Avaada Power each offered to charge 2.62 rupees per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity generated from solar panels they hope to build at an energy park in the desert state. Last year’s previous record lowest bid was 4.34 rupees per kWh. Analysts called the 40% price drop “world historic” and said it was driven by cheaper finance and growing investor confidence in India’s pledge to dramatically increase its renewable energy capacity.

It reduces the market price of solar tariffs well past the average charged by India’s largest thermal coal conglomerate, currently around 3.20 rupees per kWh . Wholesale price bids for wind energy also reached a record low of 3.46 rupees in February." https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/10/indian-solar-power-p...

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#OIL Oljefondet har vært over 8.000 milliarder NOK, ligger nå på 7.985: https://www.nbim.no/no/

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Heller til at oljeanalytikere, som Kjus, som mener #OIL vil nå $70 mot slutten av året, kan få rett. Shale har visstnok økt med ca 1/2 mill fat, i samme periode som Opec hat kuttet med 1,5 mill og land utenom har kuttet med 0,6 mill (alle tall med forbehold). I samme periode har vel etterspørselen også økt noe, så en normalisert lagerbeholdning på 5-års snitt er innen rekkevide mot slutten av året

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Oljeanalytiker Torbjørn Kjus i DNB Markets har ståltro på at oljeprisene vil fortsette oppover de neste månedene vil kunne stabilisere seg rundt 70 dollar fatet.

– Vi må antagelig nå se tilstrekkelig lagertrekk til å flippe strukturen på forwardkurven inn i backwardation før neste fase for oljeprisen kan starte og ta den opp i 70 dollar fatet, sier Kjus. Forward-kurven i oljeprisen er hvordan oljeprisen i dag er ventet å utvikle seg i tiden fremover. «Backwardation» er et begrep som beskriver en situasjon der den forventede prisen på olje i fremtiden er lavere enn prisen for olje med levering på den samme tiden i dag (se faktaboks). #oil

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