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Oljeprisen

OIL

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US oil rig count økte kraftig med +21 denne uken (+3,3%) mot +14 forrige uke. Størst økning i Texas (Permian +7 elller +2,2%) og i Oklahoma. Igjen en ganske bred økning der ingen av større områder reduserte. #oil

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OPEC: To cut or not to cut

Tittelen på en Goldman Sachs rapport i dag der figuren nedenfor viser hvordan de oppfatter shale situasjonen. De kaller det som skjer en strukturell deflasjonsmessig endring i oljekostnadskurven.

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Baker Hughes rig count viste at antall oljeborende rigger i US økte med 14 denne uken (+2,2% på en uke). Williston (North Dakota) økte mest med +4 (+10%) foran Mississippian med +3 (+50%). Det som er verdt å merke seg at antallet altså nå virker ta seg bredt opp i flere områder mens det i en lengre periode i stor grad skjedde i Permian grunnet best produktivitet. Det tyder på at aktørene også mener at dagens oljepris kan gi god lønnsomhet i andre områder. #oil

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#OIL. US importen råolje så langt i mars er lavere enn på samme tid i 2015 og 2016. (været, dyrere drivstoff o.a?) NOPEC medlemmer ( Kashagan feltet) Kazakhstan + 180.000 fat/dag. Også Azerbaijan øker olje produksjonen i år med 4,7%. DXY lavere WTI nå 48/48/fat

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#OIL. Økt boring Permian betyr mer gass og fallende priser. A drilling surge in America’s hottest oil play may prove to be a pitfall for natural gas bulls.

As explorers extract crude from the Permian shale in West Texas, they’re also producing gas. A jump in the number of rigs operating in the basin is adding to the so-called fracklog, or the number of drilled wells that are waiting to be connected. That’s a sign that gas output from the region will jump by about 25 percent over the next year, threatening to send prices below $2 per million British thermal units, according to Tudor Pickering Holt & Co.

Gas is already this year’s worst performer among major commodities, and the prospect of a torrent of supply from the Permian means 2018 may not be much brighter for gas bulls. Output from the basin would augment production from the Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, which is expanding as new pipelines carry the fuel to major markets.

“It’s a real risk that a year from now that prices could be below $2,” said Brandon Blossman, a managing director at Tudor Pickering Holt in Houston. “You have this unfortunate confluence of Permian production ramping right into the teeth of a lot of new takeaway capacity in the Northeast.”

Gas production from the Permian may total 7.945 billion cubic feet a day in April, up 15 percent from a year earlier. The basin’s oil and gas rigs climbed for nine straight months through February, more than doubling from the 2016 low in May, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report Monday. The backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells ballooned 43 percent during the same period.

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Saudis Warn Producers About Cheating on Oil-Cut Deal
By Benoit Faucon and Summer Said
Saudi Arabia is sending strong signals, publicly and privately, that it won't keep cutting back oil output unless other big petroleum producers fully join its effort to raise crude prices, people familiar with the matter said.

The tensions were apparent at a private meeting in Houston last week, when Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih took aside his Russian and Iraqi counterparts and expressed his frustration, according to people familiar with the matter. Iraq, a fellow member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and Russia, which isn't in the cartel, had both agreed to cut output but were far behind.

"He was really fed up," said a person familiar with the meeting, speaking of Mr. Falih.

Russia's energy minister, Alexander Novak, and Iraq's top oil official, Jabar Ali al-Luaibi, both reassured Mr. Falih that their countries were committed to cuts, according to people familiar with the meeting. A Russian energy ministry spokesman and Mr. Luaibi didn't respond to requests for comment.

The exchange underscores the pressure on Saudi Arabia as it bears the brunt of OPEC's painful 1.2 million barrel a day production cut. The OPEC production agreement was supposed to lift the oil market out of two-year funk and ultimately help producers like Saudi Arabia, but prices have fallen back close to their pre-cut levels.

Some OPEC members have fallen short of their commitments, with Saudi Arabia making it up for them. Saudi Arabia has cut 800,000 barrels a day since October, OPEC says, about 300,000 barrels a day more than it promised. #oil

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#OIL. Opec kurvpris 15/3/17 $ 49,17/fat opp fra 48,63 den 14. Wti nå 49,38, styrer til en viss grad kurvprisen.

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